Technical Machine: Team Prediction

Explanation

The AI predicts the foe's team using the usage stats. The first step is to simply look at usage stats overall, and that is the initial estimate. This estimate is then refined using various multipliers.

The first multiplier for the Pokemon is the non-lead multiplier. Whenever my AI has seen a team, It has always seen at least one Pokemon: the lead. We have lead stats for Pokemon, and so we can remove that from the general stats and get a non-lead multiplier. For instance, if Azelf is used 100 times total, and is used 40 times as a lead, that means if I don't see it as a lead, actually only has 60% of the usages that the overall stats suggest.

The next multiplier comes from the teammate stats. As an example, Machamp is 12.98% of all Pokemon used. If I have seen Celebi, however, then it is used 16.9% of the time, or about 1.3 times as much. If I then see a Gengar, Machamp is only used .92 times as much as Machamp alone. Combining all of these gives 12.98% * 1.3 * .92 = 15.54% of all Pokemon used with Celebi and Gengar are Machamp. After taking all of these multipliers into account, I find which Pokemon is the most likely to be used, and assume that Pokemon is next on the team. I then see which Pokemon is made most likely by the inclusion of that Pokemon, and continue repeating this process until the entire team has been predicted.

In versions of Pokemon with team reveal, this is much less important, as all 6 Pokemon are known. However, there are variants with team reveal in which players select a subset of the visible 6, and therefore a strong player should be able to make use of this information to select the best subset. Even if all Pokemon are brought into battle (see 6, choose 6), there is still the issue of determining which Pokemon should lead.

There is no equivalent to "team mate stats" for move usages, however, and team reveal does not invalidate work in this domain. Currently, my move set predictor simply takes the top 4 moves used by the given Pokemon and assumes that's what they have. When it sees a move not on the list, it removes the least commonly used move to make room. This could lead to, for example, predicting that Heatran has both Flamethrower and Fire Blast if the AI sees Flamethrower, but the default prediction actually does give a pretty good move set. It's not until you get to Pokemon #23 in usage, Celebi, that it makes a prediction like that by default, assuming Celebi has both Grass Knot and Leaf Storm. Most Pokemon have a top 4 set of moves that make a solid move set.

Examples

Screenshot of team predictor program

The following are the predicted teams based on the 2010 August statistics. The only data these predictions are given is the lead Pokemon. Data will be sorted by lead frequency.

Azelf lead

Azelf @ Focus Sash
Ability: Levitate
	- Taunt
	- Psychic
	- Stealth Rock
	- Explosion

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Gyarados @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Dragon Dance
	- Waterfall

Gengar @ Life Orb
Ability: Levitate
	- Substitute
	- Thunderbolt
	- Focus Blast
	- Shadow Ball

Machamp lead

Machamp @ Lum Berry
Ability: No Guard
	- Ice Punch
	- Bullet Punch
	- Payback
	- DynamicPunch

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Gyarados @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Dragon Dance
	- Waterfall

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Jirachi @ Leftovers
Ability: Serene Grace
	- Ice Punch
	- Thunderbolt
	- Fire Punch
	- Iron Head

Rotom-H @ Leftovers
Ability: Levitate
	- Trick
	- Overheat
	- Thunderbolt
	- Shadow Ball

Aerodactyl lead

Aerodactyl @ Focus Sash
Ability: Pressure
	- Rock Slide
	- Stealth Rock
	- Taunt
	- Earthquake

Gengar @ Life Orb
Ability: Levitate
	- Substitute
	- Thunderbolt
	- Focus Blast
	- Shadow Ball

Tyranitar @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Sand Stream
	- Pursuit
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Crunch

Magnezone @ Leftovers
Ability: Magnet Pull
	- Hidden Power
	- Substitute
	- Explosion
	- Thunderbolt

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Starmie @ Life Orb
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Rapid Spin
	- Surf
	- Ice Beam
	- Thunderbolt

Metagross lead

Metagross @ Lum Berry
Ability: Clear Body
	- Bullet Punch
	- Explosion
	- Meteor Mash
	- Earthquake

Gyarados @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Dragon Dance
	- Waterfall

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Starmie @ Life Orb
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Rapid Spin
	- Surf
	- Ice Beam
	- Thunderbolt

Swampert lead

Swampert @ Leftovers
Ability: Torrent
	- Roar
	- Ice Beam
	- Stealth Rock
	- Earthquake

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Rotom-H @ Leftovers
Ability: Levitate
	- Trick
	- Overheat
	- Thunderbolt
	- Shadow Ball

Starmie @ Life Orb
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Rapid Spin
	- Surf
	- Ice Beam
	- Thunderbolt

Infernape lead

Infernape @ Life Orb
Ability: Blaze
	- U-turn
	- Fire Blast
	- Grass Knot
	- Close Combat

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Starmie @ Life Orb
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Rapid Spin
	- Surf
	- Ice Beam
	- Thunderbolt

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Gengar @ Life Orb
Ability: Levitate
	- Substitute
	- Thunderbolt
	- Focus Blast
	- Shadow Ball

Gyarados @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Dragon Dance
	- Waterfall

Heatran lead

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Gyarados @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Dragon Dance
	- Waterfall

Gengar @ Life Orb
Ability: Levitate
	- Substitute
	- Thunderbolt
	- Focus Blast
	- Shadow Ball

Starmie @ Life Orb
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Rapid Spin
	- Surf
	- Ice Beam
	- Thunderbolt

Jirachi lead

Jirachi @ Leftovers
Ability: Serene Grace
	- Ice Punch
	- Thunderbolt
	- Fire Punch
	- Iron Head

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Rotom-W @ Leftovers
Ability: Levitate
	- Trick
	- Thunderbolt
	- Hydro Pump
	- Shadow Ball

Suicune @ Leftovers
Ability: Pressure
	- Hidden Power
	- Ice Beam
	- Surf
	- Calm Mind

Roserade @ Focus Sash
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Hidden Power
	- Leaf Storm
	- Sleep Powder
	- Toxic Spikes

Ninjask lead

Ninjask @ Leftovers
Ability: Speed Boost
	- X-Scissor
	- Substitute
	- Swords Dance
	- Baton Pass

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Starmie @ Life Orb
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Rapid Spin
	- Surf
	- Ice Beam
	- Thunderbolt

Dragonite @ Life Orb
Ability: Inner Focus
	- Outrage
	- ExtremeSpeed
	- Dragon Dance
	- Earthquake

Metagross @ Lum Berry
Ability: Clear Body
	- Bullet Punch
	- Explosion
	- Meteor Mash
	- Earthquake

Gengar @ Life Orb
Ability: Levitate
	- Substitute
	- Thunderbolt
	- Focus Blast
	- Shadow Ball

Roserade lead

Roserade @ Focus Sash
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Hidden Power
	- Leaf Storm
	- Sleep Powder
	- Toxic Spikes

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Rotom-W @ Leftovers
Ability: Levitate
	- Trick
	- Thunderbolt
	- Hydro Pump
	- Shadow Ball

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Suicune @ Leftovers
Ability: Pressure
	- Hidden Power
	- Ice Beam
	- Surf
	- Calm Mind

Jirachi @ Leftovers
Ability: Serene Grace
	- Ice Punch
	- Thunderbolt
	- Fire Punch
	- Iron Head

Hippowdon lead

Hippowdon @ Leftovers
Ability: Sand Stream
	- Roar
	- Stealth Rock
	- Slack Off
	- Earthquake

Blissey @ Leftovers
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Wish
	- Toxic
	- Softboiled
	- Seismic Toss

Skarmory @ Leftovers
Ability: Keen Eye
	- Brave Bird
	- Whirlwind
	- Spikes
	- Roost

Tentacruel @ Leftovers
Ability: Liquid Ooze
	- Sludge Bomb
	- Toxic Spikes
	- Surf
	- Rapid Spin

Rotom-H @ Leftovers
Ability: Levitate
	- Trick
	- Overheat
	- Thunderbolt
	- Shadow Ball

Swampert @ Leftovers
Ability: Torrent
	- Roar
	- Ice Beam
	- Stealth Rock
	- Earthquake

Starmie lead

Starmie @ Life Orb
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Rapid Spin
	- Surf
	- Ice Beam
	- Thunderbolt

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Gengar @ Life Orb
Ability: Levitate
	- Substitute
	- Thunderbolt
	- Focus Blast
	- Shadow Ball

Gyarados @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Dragon Dance
	- Waterfall

Dragonite lead

Dragonite @ Life Orb
Ability: Inner Focus
	- Outrage
	- ExtremeSpeed
	- Dragon Dance
	- Earthquake

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Starmie @ Life Orb
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Rapid Spin
	- Surf
	- Ice Beam
	- Thunderbolt

Gengar @ Life Orb
Ability: Levitate
	- Substitute
	- Thunderbolt
	- Focus Blast
	- Shadow Ball

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Tyranitar lead

Tyranitar @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Sand Stream
	- Pursuit
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Crunch

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Gyarados @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Dragon Dance
	- Waterfall

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Gengar @ Life Orb
Ability: Levitate
	- Substitute
	- Thunderbolt
	- Focus Blast
	- Shadow Ball

Uxie lead

Uxie @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Trick
	- Thunder Wave
	- U-turn
	- Stealth Rock

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Flygon @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
	- Stone Edge
	- Outrage
	- U-turn
	- Earthquake

Suicune @ Leftovers
Ability: Pressure
	- Hidden Power
	- Ice Beam
	- Surf
	- Calm Mind

Jirachi @ Leftovers
Ability: Serene Grace
	- Ice Punch
	- Thunderbolt
	- Fire Punch
	- Iron Head

Rotom-H @ Leftovers
Ability: Levitate
	- Trick
	- Overheat
	- Thunderbolt
	- Shadow Ball

Forretress lead

Forretress @ Leftovers
Ability: Sturdy
	- Toxic Spikes
	- Explosion
	- Spikes
	- Rapid Spin

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Gyarados @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Dragon Dance
	- Waterfall

Blissey @ Leftovers
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Wish
	- Toxic
	- Softboiled
	- Seismic Toss

Rotom-H @ Leftovers
Ability: Levitate
	- Trick
	- Overheat
	- Thunderbolt
	- Shadow Ball

Skarmory @ Leftovers
Ability: Keen Eye
	- Brave Bird
	- Whirlwind
	- Spikes
	- Roost

Smeargle lead

Smeargle @ Focus Sash
Ability: Own Tempo
	- Substitute
	- Ingrain
	- Baton Pass
	- Spore

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Vaporeon @ Leftovers
Ability: Water Absorb
	- Hidden Power
	- Protect
	- Wish
	- Surf

Lucario @ Life Orb
Ability: Inner Focus
	- Crunch
	- Swords Dance
	- ExtremeSpeed
	- Close Combat

Zapdos @ Leftovers
Ability: Pressure
	- Hidden Power
	- Heat Wave
	- Roost
	- Thunderbolt

Celebi @ Leftovers
Ability: Natural Cure
	- Leaf Storm
	- Thunder Wave
	- Grass Knot
	- Recover

Gliscor lead

Gliscor @ Leftovers
Ability: Sand Veil
	- Stealth Rock
	- Taunt
	- Roost
	- Earthquake

Tyranitar @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Sand Stream
	- Pursuit
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Crunch

Scizor @ Choice Band
Ability: Technician
	- Pursuit
	- U-turn
	- Superpower
	- Bullet Punch

Heatran @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Flash Fire
	- Dragon Pulse
	- Explosion
	- Fire Blast
	- Earth Power

Gyarados @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
	- Earthquake
	- Stone Edge
	- Dragon Dance
	- Waterfall

Rotom-H @ Leftovers
Ability: Levitate
	- Trick
	- Overheat
	- Thunderbolt
	- Shadow Ball

Bronzong lead

Bronzong @ Leftovers
Ability: Levitate
	- Earthquake
	- Stealth Rock
	- Gyro Ball
	- Explosion

Kingdra @ Leftovers
Ability: Swift Swim
	- Rain Dance
	- Dragon Dance
	- Outrage
	- Waterfall

Ludicolo @ Life Orb
Ability: Swift Swim
	- Energy Ball
	- Rain Dance
	- Ice Beam
	- Surf

Kabutops @ Life Orb
Ability: Swift Swim
	- Swords Dance
	- Aqua Jet
	- Waterfall
	- Stone Edge

Qwilfish @ Life Orb
Ability: Swift Swim
	- Swords Dance
	- Poison Jab
	- Waterfall
	- Explosion

Electrode @ Damp Rock
Ability: Soundproof
	- Thunder
	- Rain Dance
	- Taunt
	- Explosion